A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
